Oil Prices Plunge Amid De-escalation Hopes; Central Banks Largely Hold Rates as Gold Gains
Crude oil plunged and gold rallied as major central banks largely held rates, setting the stage for next week's US inflation data.
The story
Oil prices experienced a significant decline this week, with Brent Crude and WTI Crude falling sharply. Hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East, alongside the outcomes of the US midterm elections, contributed to the downward pressure on energy markets. Previous weeks saw Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, which had pushed Brent to a six-month high.
Global central banks presented a mixed, yet largely cautious, picture. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan all maintained their current interest rates. In contrast, the Bank of Canada moved to hike its rates, and the Bank of England also raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%, with Governor Andrew Bailey suggesting further increases could be considered if inflation persists. The Reserve Bank of Australia also enacted a rate hike last week, highlighting diverging policy considerations among major economies.
In financial markets, US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, including the 10-year and 5-year notes, which enhanced the appeal of non-yielding assets. Gold rallied, breaking above a key technical floor, as investors sought safety and inflation concerns tempered due to falling oil prices. This occurred even as AI-related technology stocks experienced a sell-off, with money rotating into safer assets like Treasuries.
Energy and metals
Brent Crude and WTI Crude both saw sharp declines, driven by shifting geopolitical sentiment. TTF Natural Gas also moved significantly lower, while Henry Hub Natural Gas edged higher. Gold extended its rally, finding support as US Treasury yields, including the 10Y Note and 5Y Note, moved to lower levels. The US 3M T-Bill yield, however, saw an increase. In currency markets, the Australian dollar weakened against the US dollar, while the Korean won and Canadian dollar moved higher.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 98.32 USD/bbl | +0.0% | -16.4% | -16.4% | +61.6% |
| WTI Crude | 90.83 USD/bbl | +0.3% | -12.8% | -12.8% | +58.2% |
| TTF Natural Gas | 85.59 EUR/MWh | -5.6% | -17.7% | -17.7% | +203.9% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 3.00 USD/MMBtu | +1.7% | +3.5% | +3.5% | -18.7% |
| Gold | 4,074.90 USD/oz | -0.9% | +4.5% | +4.5% | -6.1% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.671 | -0.3% | +0.1% | -4.6% |
| USD / JPY | 158.425 | +0.6% | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| EUR / USD | 1.123 | -0.1% | +0.4% | -4.4% |
| USD / ARS | 1,545.042 | -0.2% | +0.4% | +6.4% |
| AUD / USD | 0.687 | -0.9% | -2.3% | +2.5% |
| USD / BRL | 5.496 | -0.1% | +2.1% | +0.4% |
| USD / CAD | 1.413 | +0.8% | +1.0% | +3.2% |
| GBP / USD | 1.346 | -0.2% | +0.6% | -0.1% |
| USD / IDR | 18,103.000 | +3.6% | +0.2% | +8.3% |
| USD / INR | 93.910 | -0.6% | -1.3% | +4.6% |
| USD / KRW | 1,356.340 | +1.2% | +1.4% | -5.7% |
| USD / MXN | 18.598 | -1.0% | -1.4% | +3.4% |
| USD / RUB | 81.925 | +0.5% | +0.8% | +3.1% |
| USD / SAR | 3.637 | -0.2% | -0.0% | -3.0% |
| USD / TRY | 50.134 | -0.0% | +0.4% | +16.7% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.517 | +0.2% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 4.000% | +3bp | +45bp |
| US 5Y Note | 4.648% | -7bp | +93bp |
| US 10Y Note | 4.859% | -7bp | +70bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 5.260% | -5bp | +42bp |
Central banks this week
Bank of Canada. Raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%.
Marked its first rate increase since 2023, driven by inflationary pressures.
European Central Bank. Held deposit facility rate at 2.50%.
Expected to extend its pause, balancing easing core inflation with weak domestic demand and manufacturing pressure.
Bank of Japan. Held policy rate at 1.25%.
Continued its cautious approach to monetary normalization, with focus on sustained wage growth to achieve stable inflation.
Bank of England. Raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%.
Its first increase since 2023, with Governor Andrew Bailey indicating potential for further hikes if inflation persists.
Reserve Bank of Australia. Implemented a rate hike.
Followed a period of strong inflation expectations, as indicated by the Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,424.9B | 2025 |
| Japan | $1,252.6B | 2025 |
| Switzerland | $929.6B | 2025 |
| Euro area | $594.4B | 2025 |
| India | $576.5B | 2025 |
| Saudi Arabia | $459.8B | 2025 |
| Korea, Rep. | $421.9B | 2025 |
| Singapore | $404.9B | 2025 |
| Brazil | $334.3B | 2025 |
| United Arab Emirates | $281.9B | 2025 |
| Thailand | $249.3B | 2025 |
| United States | $243.3B | 2025 |
| Mexico | $239.3B | 2025 |
| Israel | $229.5B | 2025 |
| Poland | $194.5B | 2025 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol | Delhi: Rs 102.12/litre (Nov 4, 2026); London: 171.8p/litre (week of Nov 2, 2026); New York City: $4.2605/gallon (Nov 8, 2026). | Prices in Delhi have remained stable, while London saw a slight easing, though wholesale changes can take weeks to reach pumps. New York prices saw a minor weekly decline. |
| Diesel | Delhi: Rs 95.20/litre (Nov 4, 2026); London: 198.2p/litre (week of Nov 2, 2026); New York City: $4.8186/gallon (Nov 8, 2026). | Delhi diesel prices held steady, London experienced a small drop, and New York prices moved lower, reflecting broader crude oil declines. |
| LPG | Delhi (14.2kg domestic cylinder): Rs 942 (Nov 8, 2026); Delhi (19kg commercial cylinder): Rs 2,820 (Nov 1, 2026); UK: GBP 1.00/litre (Nov 2, 2026). | Domestic LPG prices in Delhi remained unchanged, while commercial cylinder prices saw a hike at the start of November, influenced by rising Saudi Aramco contract prices. UK LPG prices were stable. |
| Marine Bunker (VLSFO) | Singapore: $854.00/metric ton (Nov 6, 2026); Rotterdam: $739.50/metric ton (Nov 6, 2026); Houston: $770.50/metric ton (Nov 6, 2026). | Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil prices varied across key global bunkering hubs, with Singapore, Rotterdam, and Houston showing daily fluctuations. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) on November 10, 2026
- UK Q3 2026 GDP first quarterly estimate on November 12, 2026
- Japan October Producer Price Index (PPI) on November 12, 2026
- Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations on November 12, 2026
- US October Producer Price Index (PPI) on November 13, 2026
- Euro area full Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October 2026 on November 18, 2026
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.