First Move  ·  Statecraft  · 
From the capitals — Wednesday morning, 15 July

US Notifies Congress of Renewed Military Action Against Iran Amid Escalating Strikes

The US formally resumed military operations against Iran following fresh airstrikes and Iranian retaliation, while Lebanon and Israel held productive talks in Rome.

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The conversation that mattered

The diplomatic landscape between the United States and Iran has shifted dramatically, with President Donald Trump formally notifying Congress on Friday of renewed military operations against Iran. This move follows a series of fresh US airstrikes and retaliatory actions by Iran, effectively plunging Washington and Tehran back into open conflict less than a month after a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed.

The US military conducted additional strikes on Tuesday targeting military sites across Iran, including port cities like Bushehr and Bandar Abbas, aimed at degrading Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping. Iran, in turn, claimed strikes against Oman and Bahrain, targeting radar systems and US military facilities.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated the MoU had entered a "crisis phase" due to continuous US violations, warning Iran would cease its own obligations if breaches continued. The escalation casts significant doubt on the survival of diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have surged, reaching their highest levels in four weeks.

Today's meetings

Lebanon

Actor Two: Israel

Venue Or Format: Rome, Italy

What Was Discussed: The first day of US-brokered talks concluded as 'productive,' focusing on an Israeli troop withdrawal from two areas of southern Lebanon.

Signal: Indicates a potential pathway for de-escalation and implementation of a framework agreement.

Canada's Foreign Minister

Actor Two: Brazil's Foreign Minister

Venue Or Format: São Paulo, Brazil

What Was Discussed: Co-chaired the fifth Brazil-Canada Strategic Partnership Dialogue, discussing trade, investment, energy, and sustainable development.

Signal: Reinforces bilateral cooperation and commitment to advancing the Canada-Mercosul Free Trade Agreement negotiations.

Joint statements + readouts

Canada, Brazil

Topic: Customs Cooperation

Key Line: Brazil and Canada signed today a bilateral Agreement on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Customs Matters that allows our customs authorities to exchange information, enhance cooperation, and address cross-border customs offences.

Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, United Kingdom

Topic: Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition

Key Line: We announce today the initiation of the establishment of a purely defensive Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition, expressing support for its Flagship Project to develop an Anti-Ballistic capability.

Members of the Shield of the Americas

Topic: Democratic Governance and Economic Imperatives

Key Line: Democratic governance, constitutional order, and the rule of law are not only political priorities—they are economic imperatives for the future of the Western Hemisphere.

Multilateral pulse

High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF). The ministerial segment of the forum, convened under the auspices of ECOSOC, concluded today after three days of in-depth reviews of Sustainable Development Goals including water, energy, infrastructure, and sustainable cities.

Bilateral threads worth following

US ↔ Iran

Current State: Renewed conflict and significant escalation, with the viability of a recent MoU in question.

Last Move: President Trump formally notified Congress of resumed military operations against Iran on Friday, July 10, following fresh US airstrikes and Iranian retaliation on July 15.

China ↔ Thailand

Current State: Anticipating a high-level official visit to deepen comprehensive strategic cooperation.

Last Move: China announced on July 13 that Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul will pay an official visit to China from July 16 to 20.

What we'll be watching next 72h

Reporting + analyst voices: grounded via Google Search at publish time.